UFC 324 Underdogs & Sleepers: Value Picks & Rising Stars for the Paramount+ Debut

The UFC enters a new era on January 24, 2026. UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett marks the promotion’s historic debut on Paramount+, bringing the Octagon to a massive new streaming audience. While the headlines are dominated by Justin Gaethje’s interim title clash with Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett and the return of the G.O.A.T. Amanda Nunes, the smartest fans (and bettors) are looking elsewhere.

History tells us that major transitional cards often deliver chaos. With new eyes watching, the pressure is at an all-time high, creating the perfect storm for upsets and breakout performances. The oddsmakers have set wide lines for some of the night’s most competitive matchups, leaving plenty of value on the table for those who know where to look.

Beyond the main event spotlight, we’ve analyzed the styles, stats, and narratives to bring you the best underdogs and sleepers for UFC 324. From a disrespected featherweight contender to a bantamweight slugger looking to spoil a superstar’s return, here are the fighters poised to shock the T-Mobile Arena.

The “Disrespected” Contender: Arnold Allen (+230)

Opponent: Jean Silva (-270)

The betting line for this featherweight clash feels like a reaction to recency bias rather than a reflection of reality. Jean Silva has looked phenomenal, riding a wave of viral knockouts and charisma that has the UFC promotional machine working overtime. However, Arnold Allen represents a massive leap in competition.

Allen is a perennial top contender who has only lost to the absolute elite of the division—Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev. His technical kickboxing and high fight IQ make him a nightmare for aggressive headhunters. Silva tends to load up on power shots, often leaving openings for counters. Allen’s ability to manage distance and land the straight left down the pipe could frustrate the Brazilian early.

If Allen can survive the early storm (and Silva’s unpredictable spinning attacks), his cardio and volume should take over in the second and third rounds. At +230, the Brit is arguably the best value play on the entire card. For a deeper understanding of how rankings shift after fights like this, check out our 2026 UFC Champions & Weight Classes Outlook.

Main Card Upset Watch: Song Yadong (+170)

Opponent: Sean O’Malley (-200)

Sean O’Malley is returning after back-to-back losses to Merab Dvalishvili, and questions about his durability and grappling defense are swirling. While this fight with Song Yadong is expected to be a striking chess match, Song possesses the “X-factor” that has troubled O’Malley in the past: devastating power and low kicks.

Song is one of the most explosive athletes at 135 pounds. He doesn’t just touch his opponents; he hurts them with every clean connection. O’Malley struggles when his lead leg is compromised, limiting his movement and switch-stance entries. If Song can implement a heavy calf kick strategy early, he can take away O’Malley’s greatest asset—his range management.

Furthermore, Song has a distinct grappling advantage if he chooses to use it. While he prefers to bang, the threat of the takedown could make O’Malley hesitant to commit to his own offense. At +170, Song is a live dog against a superstar who might be battling confidence issues.

Veteran Value: Rose Namajunas (+330)

Opponent: Natalia Silva (-440)

The oddsmakers have written off Rose Namajunas. The former two-time strawweight queen is a massive +330 underdog against the surging Natalia Silva. While Silva is undeniable—fast, athletic, and on a terrifying win streak—Namajunas has made a career out of silencing doubters (just ask Joanna Jędrzejczyk and Zhang Weili).

This fight will likely take place on the feet, where Namajunas is a master of distance and timing. Silva is aggressive and volume-heavy, but she has shown moments of hittability when rushing in. “Thug Rose” excels at catching opponents coming in, using her footwork to create angles for check hooks and head kicks.

The key here is experience. Namajunas has been in five-round wars and championship pressure cookers for a decade. Silva is facing her first true “elite” test. If the moment is too big for the Brazilian, or if she struggles to solve the puzzle of Rose’s movement, those +330 odds will look ridiculous in hindsight.

The “People’s Main Event” Longshot: Deiveson Figueiredo (+800)

Opponent: Umar Nurmagomedov (-1500)

Let’s address the elephant in the room: Umar Nurmagomedov is a -1500 favorite. The bookies believe the Dagestani phenom is unbeatable. But Deiveson Figueiredo at +800? That is disrespectful to a former world champion with legitimate one-punch knockout power and high-level guillotine threats.

We aren’t saying Figueiredo should win, but in MMA, no former champion should be an 8-to-1 underdog in a three-round fight. If Umar shoots a lazy takedown, Figueiredo’s guillotine is world-class. If they trade in the pocket, “Deus Da Guerra” hits significantly harder. It’s a lottery ticket, but for those looking for a “just for fun” sprinkle, the value on the God of War is astronomical.

UFC 324 FAQ

What time does the UFC 324 Main Event start?
The main card kicks off at 10:00 PM ET (7:00 PM PT) on Saturday, January 24. Expect the main event ring walks for Gaethje vs. Pimblett around 12:15 AM ET.

How can I watch UFC 324?
This is the first numbered event under the new partnership. In the US, it streams exclusively on Paramount+. International viewers can watch via UFC Fight Pass or their local broadcast partners.

Who are the biggest favorites on the card?
Umar Nurmagomedov is the biggest favorite (-1500 range) against Deiveson Figueiredo. Natalia Silva is also a heavy favorite (-440) against Rose Namajunas.

Is the Interim Title on the line?
Yes. Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett is for the Interim UFC Lightweight Championship, with the winner expected to face the undisputed champion later in 2026.